The Profitability of China¡äs Petrochemical Industry is Expected to Increase in 2025
2025-1-6
CCID pointed out in the "Prospects for the Development of China¡äs Petrochemical and Chemical Industry in 2025" (hereinafter referred to as the "Report") released recently that the introduction of a series of domestic policies is expected to stimulate the recovery of chemical demand, and it is expected that the supply and demand of the petrochemical and chemical industry will improve and the profitability is expected to increase in 2025.
The Report predicts that the petrochemical industry will show the following five major development trends in 2025.
First, the growth rate of the industry slows down and the output of main products is differentiated. On the one hand, with the stimulation of domestic policies such as increasing public expenditure and reducing taxes and fees, China¡äs economy will continue to grow, driving the stable development of the petrochemical and chemical industry. On the other hand, the real estate market has been in a weak operation for a long time, and the market demand for related chemical products is difficult to improve significantly, and the medium and long-term demand-pulling effect will remain weak. The rapid development of new energy vehicle, photovoltaic, consumer electronics and other industries will form an important support for the demand of middle and high-end chemical products.
Second, the investment scale will continue to expand and the investment structure will be optimized and upgraded. Domestically, the implementation of policies such as large-scale equipment renewal, trade-in of consumer goods and rural infrastructure construction, and the overall arrangement of ultra-long-term special treasury bond funds to support equipment renewal in key areas will directly form effective investment and increase the investment scale of the petrochemical and chemical industry. Internationally, China¡äs economy has maintained strong resilience in the process of global tightening. In addition to the traditional chemical enterprise giants that have deeply cultivated the Chinese market, the Middle East energy countries represented by Saudi Arabia have also accelerated their investment and layout in China.
Third, the import volume of high-end products will continue to grow and the export trade pressure of low and middle-end products will increase. It is expected that in 2025, the domestic demand for high-end chemical products will generally show a growth trend, and it is expected that China¡äs high-end synthetic resins, fine specialty chemicals and other products will continue to rely on imports. With the commissioning of large-scale projects such as domestic refining integration, China¡äs self-sufficiency ability of basic chemical products has been strengthened, and the low and middle-end products are facing structural overcapacity. In the short term, the export of low-end petrochemical products will increase and the competition will become fierce in the future.
Fourth, the crude oil price fluctuates and declines and the product prices show a differentiated trend. With the recovery of China¡äs downstream consumption, the demand for petrochemical products grows steadily. However, most of the domestic low and middle-end chemical products are in a balanced or even surplus state. In the case of oversupply, the market competition is fierce and the prices are likely to continue to fall. The rise of emerging industries such as automobile lightweighting, photovoltaic, energy storage, low-altitude economy and humanoid robots has driven the demand for high-end petrochemical products, and it is expected that the prices of these products will rise slightly.
Fifth, the economic benefits of the industry will improve and the profit will return to positive growth. It is expected that in 2025, the global economy will recover slowly, the expectation of international crude oil prices will be relatively weak, the cost pressure of chemical products will be alleviated, the continuous efforts of domestic demand for stable growth will provide support for the petrochemical and chemical market and the demand will improve. At the national and local levels, accelerating the transformation and upgrading of equipment in the petrochemical and chemical industry, carrying out digital and intelligent transformation and strengthening the construction of pilot bases will effectively reduce the production cost of enterprises and achieve the growth of economic benefits.
The Report predicts that the petrochemical industry will show the following five major development trends in 2025.
First, the growth rate of the industry slows down and the output of main products is differentiated. On the one hand, with the stimulation of domestic policies such as increasing public expenditure and reducing taxes and fees, China¡äs economy will continue to grow, driving the stable development of the petrochemical and chemical industry. On the other hand, the real estate market has been in a weak operation for a long time, and the market demand for related chemical products is difficult to improve significantly, and the medium and long-term demand-pulling effect will remain weak. The rapid development of new energy vehicle, photovoltaic, consumer electronics and other industries will form an important support for the demand of middle and high-end chemical products.
Second, the investment scale will continue to expand and the investment structure will be optimized and upgraded. Domestically, the implementation of policies such as large-scale equipment renewal, trade-in of consumer goods and rural infrastructure construction, and the overall arrangement of ultra-long-term special treasury bond funds to support equipment renewal in key areas will directly form effective investment and increase the investment scale of the petrochemical and chemical industry. Internationally, China¡äs economy has maintained strong resilience in the process of global tightening. In addition to the traditional chemical enterprise giants that have deeply cultivated the Chinese market, the Middle East energy countries represented by Saudi Arabia have also accelerated their investment and layout in China.
Third, the import volume of high-end products will continue to grow and the export trade pressure of low and middle-end products will increase. It is expected that in 2025, the domestic demand for high-end chemical products will generally show a growth trend, and it is expected that China¡äs high-end synthetic resins, fine specialty chemicals and other products will continue to rely on imports. With the commissioning of large-scale projects such as domestic refining integration, China¡äs self-sufficiency ability of basic chemical products has been strengthened, and the low and middle-end products are facing structural overcapacity. In the short term, the export of low-end petrochemical products will increase and the competition will become fierce in the future.
Fourth, the crude oil price fluctuates and declines and the product prices show a differentiated trend. With the recovery of China¡äs downstream consumption, the demand for petrochemical products grows steadily. However, most of the domestic low and middle-end chemical products are in a balanced or even surplus state. In the case of oversupply, the market competition is fierce and the prices are likely to continue to fall. The rise of emerging industries such as automobile lightweighting, photovoltaic, energy storage, low-altitude economy and humanoid robots has driven the demand for high-end petrochemical products, and it is expected that the prices of these products will rise slightly.
Fifth, the economic benefits of the industry will improve and the profit will return to positive growth. It is expected that in 2025, the global economy will recover slowly, the expectation of international crude oil prices will be relatively weak, the cost pressure of chemical products will be alleviated, the continuous efforts of domestic demand for stable growth will provide support for the petrochemical and chemical market and the demand will improve. At the national and local levels, accelerating the transformation and upgrading of equipment in the petrochemical and chemical industry, carrying out digital and intelligent transformation and strengthening the construction of pilot bases will effectively reduce the production cost of enterprises and achieve the growth of economic benefits.